“Downscale voters”

The only thing that could’ve made this more appropriate is if they had been sipping champagne during the segment…

It’s alright Bill, all us junkies are feeling wistful too

Ten Observations from another night watching the returns:

1. When Obama tries to “Edwards down” his speeches (basically adding in anecdotes about people he’s met and everyday problems), he sounds kinda bored. He wakes up quite a bit when he starts talking about changing the process.

2. Obama did add a nice bit of patriotism in his victory speech last night; nice use of imagery too — “flag-draped coffin,” “shuttered steel mills,” etc…

123 days and counting…

There’s a very real possibility that last night was the final contested primary night of the 2008 election cycle. Obama has picked up at least four superdelegates today. George McGovern (not a superdelegate) has un-endoresed Clinton and endorsed Obama. News broke that the Hillary had loaned her campaign $6.4 million last month… this thing looks pretty done. She’s vowing to continue until there is a nominee, but it seems pretty half-hearted.

Clinton wins Indiana

MSNBC just made the call.  Fittingly, they made it while Chuck Todd was doing what Chuck Todd always does: explains why a state hasn’t been called until the final call breaks in and makes his analysis irrelevant.  Well… gotta appreciate the tradition.

If Drudge says it…

Drudge headline: The Nominee

With a picture of Obama. No question mark afterward.

Huffington Post? “Presumptive Nominee.” Also over a photo of Obama, also without a question mark.

Drudge also reporting that Clinton will “huddle with undecided superdelegates tomorrow to see if its possible to continue.”

Tim Russert: “We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be.”

Looks like primary season may really actually seriously-this-time be over.

Should’ve listened to the angel on the other shoulder…

Lesson: I should never go to Vegas. Apparently, I have no concept of quitting while I’m ahead. But, how tempting… I did so well with Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania.

Um… not so much with Indiana/North Carolina today. Obama takes NC, not by the 1% I predicted, but by something like a million percent (actually by 14%, give or take the 2% still out). Indiana, at midnight with 9% left to count is labeled “too close to call” with Clinton leading 51% to 49%. I’ll take some time tomorrow to think through the political consequences — at first glance, it’s tough to see how Hillary continues, but that was also said after Iowa, South Carolina, The Month of February…, so who knows. Still, even the most resilient of cats eventually spends its ninth life.

For now, I just want to mourn the ending of my predictive powers. Maybe I’ll start making ridiculous guesses - things like betting on Kucinich to take West Virginia, or McCain to take Vermont in the general by 40 points. Whatever I pick, I couldn’t do much worse than I did tonight…

Possible factors today

Just a few things to keep in mind for today’s Indiana and North Carolina primary:

1. Indiana has no party registration
2. Bill Clinton has been getting very good local press for visiting small towns, especially in North Carolina
3. Obama generally carries states that are less than 6% African American or greater than 17% African American. North Carolina is 22%; Indiana, 9%.
4. Looks like both NC and IN will have perfect weather — in all parts of both states. (Ah, a May primary…)
5. Polls close at 7pm in Indiana, and 7:30 in North Carolina.
6. Clinton was endorsed by the major IN paper; Obama by the big NC paper.

Predictions for tomorrow

I’m on a bit of a roll right now… did very well with my predictions for Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, so I’m a little hesitant to put that credibility on the line taking a shot at Indiana and North Carolina.  But the devil on the other shoulder is reminding me that I already have my mental picks down, and if they turn out to be close, I’ll wish I had written them down the night before.  Hmm… angel, devil, angel, devil…

The stock market of baby names

A couple of months ago, I posted about baby naming trends, and also listed my favorite names:

Personally, I like Nell and Rosie for my daughters, and Gus and Mack for my sons. Most of these would have formal versions (Eleanor, Rose, and Augustus… I think Mack would stand alone), but they would always go by the nickname.

Re-elect Dole 2000, and other problems with electability

It’s hard to imagine now, but before 2004, the word “electability” didn’t really exist (in fact, even now, spell-check is catching it, and Wikipedia re-directs to “election.”)  Wow, what a long way to come in a very short amount of time…

The concept of “electability” has always existed with the Party insiders, if not Primary voters, but it’s only been listed on public opinion polls since the ‘04 Democratic Primary.  Taking a quick shot at the idea of an “electable” John Kerry over the “unelectable” Howard Dean is a bit too easy, but the problem is that it wasn’t the first time the electabilitistas were wrong (hey, according to this, electability isn’t even a word, so I don’t see where electabilitista is such a stretch).