Where the narrative goes from here…

So, it doesn’t take spin to know that Hillary Clinton carried the night last night and changed the momentum. While Obama ultimately won Vermont by 22% (I predicted 17%), Clinton won Ohio by 10% (prediction: Clinton by 8%), Texas by 4% (exact prediction), and Rhode Island by 19% (I didn’t guess, and I’m glad I didn’t). Sorry — while I was rooting for Obama last night, and was disappointed in the results, I was at least happy to see that my guesses have never been more accurate. Small blessings and all.

Interesting to guess at the new narratives that have emerged from the primary as it heads into extra innings. First, a wild note for context: this campaign will now definitely go on until at least the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. April 22 is seven weeks from now. The Iowa caucus? Eight weeks ago! It seems like a lifetime! Weird. But, back to the spin, the headlines, and the narratives that begin today:

1. Exit polls and The Bradley Effect. I touched on this yesterday, in that exit polls, which had Clinton and Obama within a couple of points of each other in all of the states that Clinton ultimately carried and had Obama winning by a greater margin than he actually did in Vermont. Not as much talk about it today as I expected — one mention on Morning Joe in an interview with Christopher Hitchens.

2. The “buyer’s remorse” story and Obama’s “inability to close.” Clearly being talked about by all the Clinton folks; picked up on freely by the media; and, well… seemingly true to an extent. She came back from the dead in New Hampshire. She came back to beat him by double digits in California. Now Ohio and Texas? I mean, not to sound like Terry McAulliffe, but why can’t he close the deal?

3. Interesting how she subtly works the word “comeback” into all of her big comebacks. Unlike some candidates (John McCain in NH this year, Joe Lieberman — ironically — in New Hampshire 2004), Hillary doesn’t completely crib Bill’s line about being “the comeback kid.” Still, in New Hampshire, she somewhat subtly dropped the word “comeback” into her victory speech (”Now, together, let’s give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me,”) and last night stated: “this nation’s coming back and so is this campaign.” That’s the line that’s being quoted today.

4. Maybe it wasn’t entirely based on media perception of momentum. There were some substantive (or semi-substantive) stumbles this week for Obama: The NAFTA-gate story, with his economic adviser going to Canada to “reassure” them about his position on trade; the whole Rezko thing popping up again; and the lack of response to her 3am ad in Texas. Pundits are in fact talking about the success of her “kitchen sink” strategy. Too bad Mark Penn had nothing to do with it.

5. She successfully spun the SNL opening about the press favoring Obama. During the last week and a half, the self-conscious media really has gone out of its way to scrutinize Obama while treating Clinton more than fairly. Nice job working the refs, even if it did lead to that awkward moment in the MSNBC debate last week.

6. Many pundits are keeping the momentum shift in check by looking at the raw numbers. While the temptation is to say that her victories last night essentially reset the race, some pundits remain skeptical — looking at the delegate math and recognizing how difficult it would be for her to become the nominee.

7. The momentum should shift again over the next six days, with Wyoming on Saturday, and Mississippi on Tuesday strongly favoring Obama. Then… six weeks of nothingness and an opportunity for numerous campaign twists before Pennsylvania on April 22.

8. That whole late night strategy really works! In the week leading up to mini-Tuesday (Super Tuesday II?), Clinton appeared on David Letterman, Saturday Night Live, and Jon Stewart. That’s a decent line-up, and possibly as key to her victory as Wolfson wearing the sweater. Eh, who am I kidding… nothing is that key.