Predictions for tomorrow
May 5, 2008 by Mary Clyens
I’m on a bit of a roll right now… did very well with my predictions for Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, so I’m a little hesitant to put that credibility on the line taking a shot at Indiana and North Carolina. But the devil on the other shoulder is reminding me that I already have my mental picks down, and if they turn out to be close, I’ll wish I had written them down the night before. Hmm… angel, devil, angel, devil…
So I’m going Clinton +6 in Indiana. That’s pretty reflective of the polls… not such a bold pick. But, in North Carolina, I’m saying Obama +1, which would be a worse showing for Obama than any of the polls are suggesting (Real Clear Politics average is Obama +7).
Running out of states to predict. Not much left — West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico… I think a couple of others…
Primary season is winding down, at least in terms of states to vote. Kinda sad. On the upside, only 232 days until Christmas!
I got Indiana the same, but I’m going long for Obama in North Carolina and a beatdownish +12. Indiana might be getting closer in this final day, It’s hard to say. Zogby is going AWOL with 3 Obama+ polls… So we’ll see.
- Michael Mee
http://www.sanityandpwns.com
I think the gap in NC will not be huge. I can see it being a virtual tie, with so many “undecided” voters, meaning they don’t want to say. This happened in PA with everyone saying the gap was narrow but there were 13% undecided. And a lot went for Clinton.
I think you could be right on NC.
Zogby’s always interesting… sometimes he’s the only pollster who gets it right, sometimes he’s way out in left field. Overall, I trust him, but I usually make these guesses based on instinct. You may very well be right about NC, I don’t know. I just know that Clinton closes well, always does better than polls predict and I think that gas tax thing will play well. Also, even though Obama put a lot of the Wright controversy behind him last week, I don’t know that there’s as much distance (time-wise) as he needs. Most people don’t follow the news on the weekend, so there were only, what… 3 or 4 news cycles of post-Wright coverage. Could still show up at the polls…
I’d say you are off. I’ll bet my predictions are better.
We will see.
Looks like I misjudged NC. Well, when I lived there everyone around me was hoping for a Clinton presidency and they got it–all my profs got posts in the justice department. Ultimately, though, Ken Starr got the BIG position.
Go figure.
It’s alright Huntingdon — looks like we can be wrong together. Nice calls, Michaelmee and Loomisnews.