All kinds of articles in the news and pundits weighing in about the “new electoral map” and the merit of the 50-state strategy in this election cycle. Can McCain pick off some of those rust belt and mid-western states that proved so tough for Obama in the primaries? Will Obama make strides in the South? Is this the year where the “Whistling Past Dixie” thesis, the convention in Denver, and a relatively new crop of Western Democratic Governors and Senators will swing the Old Frontier? Will McCain’s maverick reputation help him remain competitive in the Northeast?
And if all or some of these things are true, who does the new map favor?
Alright, the states and the numbers (number of electoral votes in parenthesis, 270 needed to win):
New England
Maine (4)* Obama, all electors
New Hampshire (4) McCain, could be close
Vermont (3) Obama
Massachusetts (12) Obama
Rhode Island (4) Obama
Connecticut (7) Obama
McCain probably has a better than even shot in New Hampshire – the Granite Staters have been pretty loyal to the man over the past eight years. Give McCain their 4 electors, other 30 to Obama (yeah, I’m going with all of Maine’s electors).
Tally: Obama (30), McCain (4), toss-up (0)
Mid-Atlantic
New York (31) Obama
New Jersey (15) Obama, could be closer than usual
Pennsylvania (21) toss-up
Delaware (3) close, but I’m going Obama
Maryland (10) Obama
D.C. (3) uh… don’t think McCain will crack 10%… give this to Obama
New York, Maryland and D.C. seem as reliable as any states for Obama, so that’s 44 electors. The New Jersey suburbs are tailor-made for a McCain type Republican, but I still don’t think it’ll be close, so give NJ to Obama also. Pennsylvania is the second oldest state in the nation (second to Florida), and seems like one of the top – if not the top – states McCain will target for a pick-up. I’ll buy that for the moment, and we’ll keep it in the swing category. I’m tossing Delaware to Obama though.
Tally: Obama (92), McCain (4), Toss-up (21)
Southeast
Virginia (13) Number-one toss-up state
North Carolina (15) On the fence between McCain and toss-up; I’m going McCain
South Carolina (8 ) McCain
Georgia (15) Likely McCain, but let’s go with toss-up
Florida (27) Traditional swing state, I’m thinking safe for McCain this year
Alabama (9) McCain
Mississippi (6) McCain
Louisiana (9) McCain, but this could be close… worth watching
Arkansas (6) Likely McCain, but a long-shot pick-up (REALLY long shot)
Tennessee (11) McCain
This is one of those unpredictable regions for this cycle, so time to have fun and start guessing. I’m tossing South Carolina, Mississippi and Alabama to McCain (I don’t care what the racial demographics are in those states – these are just too red to flip right now). So, 23 for McCain. I’m also giving McCain Florida – it’s been trending Republican, Charlie Crist is a strong ally, it’s the oldest state in the union, and even for the Dems, Florida was Hillary Country. So, add another 27 for McCain. I’m thinking he should also have a fairly easy time carrying Arkansas and Tennessee. Arkansas has traditionally been the “swing” state in the South – still very Democratic at the state level, and never as conservative as the rest of the deep south, so it could’ve been competitive, but probably not for Obama. Louisiana is interesting, and while it’s very likely to stay Red, I could see it being an interesting upset pick. Um… I’ll give it to McCain for now, but it deserves an asterisk. That leaves Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia. I think Virginia will top the list of swing states, and I have long-believed this will be THE most important state in the fall. North Carolina will likely be close, but I’m thinking it leans McCain. Georgia depends on the Bob Barr traction in the fall. I’m gonna give McCain North Carolina, but add Georgia (reluctantly) and Virginia (definitely) to the toss-up category. Kind of a weird cycle when Georgia makes the purple list, but Florida seems solid.
Tally: Obama (91), McCain (95), Toss-up (49)
Mid-west
Minnesota (9) Obama
Iowa (7) Obama won the caucus, and delivered (one of) his “victory” speeches there. Obama.
Wisconsin (10) Obama
Michigan (17) Toss-up, slight edge to Obama
Missouri (11) Toss-up, may lean McCain
Indiana (11) McCain
Illinois (21) Obama
Ohio (20) Toss-up, might lean Obama
Kentucky (8 ) McCain
West Virginia (5) McCain
This is also an unpredictable region, but unlike the Southeast, this is predictably unpredictable – the traditional swing region of the country. Let’s start off easy: I am prepared to go out on a limb and put Illinois in the Obama category. Yup, I sure am putting all my credibility on the line with that call. Taking a look at the late primary results, I’m also thinking we can hand McCain West Virginia and Kentucky. Too bad – I really want West Virginia back. The swingingest of swing states, Iowa (one of only three states to flip between 2000 and 2004) should be good for Obama. He loves Iowa the way McCain loves New Hampshire. I’m also going to give Obama Wisconsin and Minnesota, but I’m holding back on Michigan. Michigan is a likely Obama pick-up, but also a top McCain target, so the toss-up category seems safer. Give Indiana to McCain – it may be the most “Republican” state in the country in both classic and contemporary terms, but I don’t think that state will see anything approaching the ‘04 Kerry blow-out. Missouri could be interesting; both Obama and McCain won it in their respective primaries by very small margins, and even though McCain has the edge, I’m sticking this in the toss-up column (and could truly become a swing state if McCaskill joined Obama’s ticket). That leaves Ohio and Michigan. They’ll make anyone’s toss-up list. So, in the mid-west, Obama-47, McCain-24, toss-up-48.
Tally: Obama (138), McCain (119), Toss-up (97)
Plains/West
North Dakota (3) McCain
South Dakota (3) McCain
Nebraska (5)* McCain, all five
Kansas (6) Probably McCain, but a long-shot swing state
Oklahoma (7) McCain
Wyoming (3) McCain
Montana (3) I’m calling this a toss-up, but leans McCain
Idaho (4) McCain
For the most part, this is likely McCain Country. Obama has a long-shot at Kansas (particularly if Sebelius is on the ticket), and a slightly better shot in Montana. I’ll put Montana in the toss-up, but it’s gonna take a bit more for me to move Kansas over. Also, give all of Nebraska’s districts to McCain. Obama-0, McCain-31, toss-up, 3.
Tally: Obama (138), McCain (150), toss-up (100)
Southwest
Nevada (5) McCain
Arizona (10) McCain
Utah (5) McCain
Colorado (9) Dems have been working this state… leans McCain, but let’s say toss-up
New Mexico (5) Toss-up, may lean McCain
Texas (34) McCain
I’m not a convert on most of these states, and I don’t much buy the “Go West” argument for Democrats. I’ll accept Colorado as a swing state this time, but only because of the Denver convention. And New Mexico, being another of those three states that flipped between ‘00 and ‘04 earns swing-state status, even though I think McCain may have an edge. So, that’s 14 in the toss-up category, and 54 for McCain.
Tally: Obama (138), McCain (204), toss-up (114)
Pacific Coast
California (55) Obama
Oregon (7) Obama
Washington (11) Obama
Oh yeah, give Obama the Granola Belt. 73 for Barack.
Tally: Obama (211), McCain (204), toss-up (114)
Non-mainland
Hawaii (4) Obama
Alaska (3) McCain
Let’s stick with the traditional split and give Obama Hawaii’s 4, and McCain Alaska’s 3.
Tally: Obama (215), McCain (207), toss-up (114)
*States divide electors proportionally by congressional district
So, according to these guesses (and they are absolute guesses, I have absolutely no confidence in them), the following states could go either way:
Virginia
Georgia
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Colorado
Montana
Missouri
Of these states electoral votes, 76 went to Bush in ‘04 and only 38 went to John Kerry. So, that suggests that the new map favors Obama. But… only two of these states went to Kerry, while the other seven were carried by Bush, meaning that Obama would have to play it almost perfectly to put together his fair share of those 76 Bush to Swing electors, while McCain can focus his fire exclusively on Michigan and Pennsylvania. Also favoring McCain – a lot of the states on this swing list are likely McCain states that require a stretch to put in the swing category, particularly Montana and Georgia.
Now when it comes to playing the electoral college game, all math is fuzzy. Truth is, nobody knows what the news cycles and polls leading up to Election Day will be, and that tends to be the only real predictor of victory. We have no idea who the candidates will choose as their running mates, what states play into their electoral strategies, what election day weather will be, how well the organizing teams operate, or who will turn out to vote. So, I have almost no confidence in my guesses here. But, ya never know…
